Climatic intelligence, resilience and competitiveness: the example of the USA and Russia
The posthumous evaluation of climate models over the last 50 years shows match with current reality: there are two consequences. The first is that the models adopted were correct at the level of analysis, so that those currently prevailing for the future can be objectively assumed to be reliable, especially considering the technological leap in available predictive and predictive tools. The second, with an optimistic point of view, if the drastic measures suggested by science to remedy global warming are implemented, however and for at least the next 15/20 years, the problems will continue to worsen but, progressively, decrease in their magnitude/intensity; with a pessimistic point of view, prevailing if we consider the ridiculousness of the political actions implemented for now compared to what science suggests and with the maximum times indicated as a point of no return, the deterioration will take place in a logarithmic way to get to lose the war against ourselves.
The second consequence as we look at it leads to the best scenario for which, at least in the next decade, however, we will have to face more bloody phenomena as intensity, extension and repercussions than the current ones. The priorities therefore become the immediate actions of adaptation and mitigation of the physical and social effects of events that will certainly be faced: the elimination of the causes becomes a second-best, important in the long term (if we want to actually deal with it) but secondary with respect for urgent policies to be undertaken which are of a different nature.
Adaptation and mitigation are words that have systemic effects in terms of competitive resilience. Those who immediately will be able to react proactively with appropriate policies will obtain considerable advantages in the medium (climate) period. This is because the effects to be met lead to a concatenated worsening of the speed with which resources become scarce. The availability of land, natural resources, agriculture and farming, migration flows and demography, the costs of natural disasters and social protests, the need for individual economic survival, are all macro-areas that interact as result of unidirectional climate change and with mutations to mitigate and adapt to. If the single technological innovations can (rarely) also have a serendipity genesis, global technological development structurally follows the needs of the short term and, in the medium-long term, those dictated by the short term.
In other words, the scenario of economic intelligence is the one for which, if we want to maintain and perhaps increase systemic competitiveness, it is necessary to think about how to be economically resilient to climate change and take advantage of its effects. Climatic intelligence scenarios that address the progressive elimination of its causes are currently useless because, depending on the outlook, the timeframe has definitely expired or the prevailing interest and political will is that it expires. The tactics and techniques are not dissimilar in the two cases: the fundamental difference is in the operational theaters and in the operations that must be based on the new objective. The present case is the arctic scenario and the new articulations of the economic warfare underway due to the predominance of resources.
This is the view of the USA and Russia. The former are tackling the issue with a perspective to coordinating the various federal policies aimed at mitigating local needs. The model of the successive reorganizations of national security, which have taken place over the years, shifts to climatic intelligence: the theater objectives are to share information, solutions and scale costs.
Russia, officially deniers of the anthropic causes of the change, issued a very articulated related government document in December. While adaptation and mitigation are addressed also 30 measures are listed to face the competitive change by clima in the country’s system.
Spain in the coming months will present the ‘National Adaptation Plan’ as an urgent provision of the first 100 days of government.France, Germany and the United Kingdom will release their over structural analyses by the end of the year.
This is an English adaptation of a neuronal Italian/English AI translation by DeepL