🇬🇧Innovation Intelligence: Analysis and Considerations About the First Ten Years of BitCoin & CO.

Utopia BTC after 10 years
Innovation Intelligence: Analysis About the First Ten Years of Bitcoin. Utopias, Actors, Unlawful Acts, Elite, Italy. Considerations and Forecasts.

It’s been more than ten years since the publication of Satoshi Nakamoto’s paper from which the epic of the bitcoin and the cryptoeconomy starts. So it seems useful to proceed with a general analysis, in the context of innovation intelligence, with regard to what has been and some consideration of what it will be. All historical and quantitative claims have easily available sources on the network for which it has been avoided encumber the post with useless links.

Utopia

In assessing this, one must have in mind only public and mixed blockchains : for the latter only those where limitations of access to information by the nodes are governed by smart contracts, shared in advance by the nodes themselves. All the rest, in utopian optics of perfectly decentralized control, is wind, in the sense that controlled distributions in access to the network and / or blockchain-based information are only alternative applications to the existing.

So failure of the realizing of utopia? Yes and for now you can’t see forces able to reverse the process.

Markets

In monetary optics the only feature for now relevant cryptocurrency is the speculative one : they only have the value reserve function (80% of the exchenages). In terms of traded volumes and number of transactions they have suffered a nearly constant surge until December 2017 to then fall (in general for both factors but with some difference) in 2018/19 following the collapse of exchange rates against the USD. The market, however, is not at all dead and, after seeing the abyss, he assaulted himself into a niche that evidently was the one that he really competed. The problem is that in absolute terms, even keeping in mind the highest in December of 2017, it was already a niche with respect to the rest of the world (of financial products) for which, even in speculative optics, its importance is, and remains, totally marginal.

Different to the industrial point of view. Here multisectoral investments have been affected by the 2018 beating (of the money side) but are reporting back to 2016 and early 2017 levels. One should not forget that two / three years ago blockchain was the macro-sector that collected most of the money intended for innovation (among start-ups, implementations, finalized acquisitions, and whatnot). Thanks to the evolution of artificial intelligence processes and smart-contract, symbiotic evolutionary elements of the blockchain, the dedicated solutions continue to be appreciated and approached by those who have to invest money in internal and external development. Shinning example the fintech whose current evolution would hardly have been possible without Nakamoto protocol. So in this view it has been ten years dense of opportunities and growth which, for now, can be expected to further improve.

Actors

On the monetary side the situation has turned out to be even worse. The utopia, failing completely in this respect, delivered the market to the intermediaries, and that is to the exchangers. For a karmic counterbalance those who had to be eliminated have become the protagonists. In this case, there has been a proliferation, even at the highest levels in view of the exchanged, of figures who rode the wave with improvised business structures : in the best cases have been subject to theft, in the worst they themselves have been (and continue to be) protagonists of swindling and market manipulation. This has further removed the potential mass from the use of the instrument for monetary purposes, even limited to speculation alone. Business models thus evolved to actors operating in jurisdictions that protect as much as possible the customer in the name of regulatory centralization (if applicable), and not in the ones of the perfect decentralization that is theoretically inherent in the protocol. So financial operators such others who work in other markers.

Functional development has instead made the lion’s share. ‘Illuminati’ in the different sectors have understood almost immediately the effectiveness, and above all, the efficiency of the blockchain : they on one side have developed useful products and, on the other, invested in it. Big-one such as Microsoft and IBM have been, platform-side, startled examples of players in this. Myriads of sectors have benefited in niches in which the costs of disintermediation of centralization are sensitive. Fintech, insurance, legaltech, transportation, no-profit, health have hatched and adopted mixed and private solutions in which funds and other types of investors have profusely invested and continue to do so.

Unlawful Acts

Elites

The media rode the tiger of sensationalism (illicit, exchange trending) by realizing in a few cases what the real entity, in good and bad, of the phenomenon was. Wises are recognized, in principle, by the particularity of having stopped moving forward with exemporaneous scoop and having inaugurated the dedicated sections of cryptoeconomy.

The industry has behaved in terms of efficiency, by making the protocol it own where the cost/benefit analysis suggested the opportunity.

The economic and law academy and the elites voted on the regulation, generalizing in the timing, struggled to understand what it was talking about for many years, mostly ignoring it. When they thought they understood it, they tried to bring everything to the existing, showing that they understood very little. Slowly, and only in some parts of the world, exponents of both sides are trying to place phenomenology in the perspective that an innovation with a character of disruption (but without the disruption in this case) need, and that is out-of-the-box.

Finally, the public and the politics. Public blockchain has in the concept of trust in transparency and the immutability of information transmitted its radical innovation foundation. This happens when trust is equi distributed across all nodes through an algorithm. This unlike a structure where the trust is imposed on nodes to a central entity that dogmatically self-refer itself trusted recipient, for the fact that it was placed in the conditions of existence. It follows, therefore, that the protocol in its pure form is a formidable tool of democracy if applied to the public. It goes without saying that any regime for its perpetuation should have control of transparency and manipulation of its own information : if left to third parties these characteristics do not allow it to survive. The ten years resulting is that perfectly public applications are zero : even in countries, such as Estonia very advanced in this road, in which blockchain is the founding digital protocol of the public communication the algorithm is always applied in a non-perfect way (from the decentralized side). For the essence of the protocol they do not predict fast change under this point of view.

So

P.S.

Italy

This post was originally published on April 25, 2019, in Italian version on www.thescanner.info .This is adaptation of a neuronal Italian/English AI translation by IBM Watson.

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